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A McKinsey & Co. report on coronavirus examines three global economic possibilities. A quick recovery, which the authors call "least likely," would include contained intracomplex transmission, with economic impacts limited largely to Q1. The base case is a global slowdown, which would include sustained intracomplex transmission, with a 2020 global slowdown. The pessimistic case would involve a global pandemic and a 2020 recession as transmission jumps and new complexes develop.  Click for report  

COVID-19 Planning Checklist

McKinsey & Co.'s 23-box checklist provides business leaders with specific actions to: Protect Employees  Follow the most conservative guidelines available among leading global and local health authorities (e.g., CDC, WHO).  Communicate with employees frequently and with the right specificity. Support any impacted employees per health guidance.  Benchmark efforts (e.g., certain companies curbing nonessential travel to all countries with community transmission). Stand Up a Cross-Functional COVID-19 Response Team  Designate overall at the C-suite/CEO-1 level. Team should be cross-functional and fully dedicated.  Appoint five workstreams: a) Employees. b) Financial stress-testing and contingency plan. c) Supply chain. d) Marketing and sales. e) Other relevant constituencies.  Define specific, rolling 48-hour, one-week goals for each workstream based on planning scenario.  Ensure a simple but well-managed operating cadence and discipline. Output- and decision-focused. Low tolerance for “meetings for the sake of meetings.”  Deliver minimum viable products: a) Rolling 6-week calendar of milestones. b) One-page plans for each workstream. c) Dashboard of progress and triggers. d) Threat map. Base Goals on Workstreams (vs. employees) Financial Stress-Testing and Contingency Plan  Define scenarios that are tailored to the company, including global slowdown over multiple durations. Identify baseline planning scenario.  Identify variables that will affect revenue and cost. For each scenario, define input numbers for each variable through analytics and expert input.  Model cash flow, P&L, balance sheet in each scenario. Identify input variable triggers that could drive significant liquidity events (including breach of covenants).  Identify trigger-based moves to stabilize organization in each scenario (A/P, A/R optimization; cost reduction; portfolio optimization through divestments, M&A). Customer Care  Protect customers (e.g., no penalties for cancellations, waiving fees, flexible booking models).  Preserve customer loyalty (e.g., premium discounts, loyalty packages). Supply Chain   Define extent and timing of exposure to areas that are experiencing community transmission (Tier 1, 2, 3 suppliers; inventory levels).  Immediate stabilization (critical parts rationing, optimize alternatives, prebook rail/air freight capacity, after-sales stock as bridge, increase priority in supplier production, support supplier restart).  Medium-/longer-term stabilization (updated demand planning and network optimization – solve for cash, accelerated qualification for alternative suppliers, drive resilience in supply chain). Marketing and Sales  Immediate stabilization (inventory planning, near-term pricing changes, discounts).  Medium-/longer-term stabilization (investment and micro-targeting for priority segments with long-term growth).  Examine online vs. branch strategy (e.g., in China now, no footfall traffic in major metropolitan areas but significant online demand; investing much more in digital). Practice Plan With Top Team Through In-Depth Table-Top Exercise  Define activation protocol for different phases of response (e.g., contingency planning only, full-scale response, other).  Key considerations: Clarity on decision owner (ideally a single leader), roles for each top team member, “elephant in room” that may slow response, actions and investment needed to carry out plan. Demonstrate Purpose  Support epidemic efforts where possible.  Click for full report, including supply chain actions to consider.

Mindsets, Practices of Excellent CEOs

A recent McKinsey & Co. article states only 3 in 5 new CEOs live up to performance expectations during their first 18 months on the job. "The high standards and broad expectations of directors, shareholders, customers, and employees create an environment of relentless scrutiny in which one move can dramatically make or derail an accomplished career," write Carolyn Dewer, Martin Hirt and Scott Keller. The authors began with the six main elements of the CEO’s job. Then, they broke those down into 18 responsibilities that fall exclusively to the CEO.  Next, they mined their database on CEO performance, which contains 25 years of data on 7,800 CEOs from 3,500 public companies across 70 countries and 24 industries.  The result is a model for CEO excellence, which prescribes mindsets and practices likely to help CEOs succeed. "What follows is a detailed look at these mindsets and practices," the article states. "Although our findings are most relevant to CEOs of large public companies, owing to our research base, many will also apply to CEOs of other bodies, including private companies, public-sector organizations, and not-for-profit institutions." Click for article


A new McKinsey & Co. report says companies that want to keep their employees need to be more flexible.  The company's recent study of more than 35,000 workers with spouses or live-in partners in various professional sectors found that 89 percent of women and 70 percent of men are part of a dual-career couple (DCC) — meaning both partners have jobs. The couples come from all racial and ethnic groups and span all income levels. "Companies can do more to base promotions and top-executive-hiring decisions on output rather than input to ensure equity for employees in DCCs," the report states. "Too many companies mistake quantity (as in the number of hours an employee spends on the job) for quality (reflected in the employee’s output)." The report explains that companies can help employees in DCCs succeed and feel fulfilled at home and work by ensuring these employees have access to professional development and career advancement, support for maintaining work–life balance, and sponsorship opportunities. Specifically, companies can take the following actions: Provide supportive managers and ensure equitable growth opportunities, especially for lower-level workers.  Encourage ambition by making top positions seem feasible.  Create a culture that encourages work–life balance.  Ensure consistent access to sustainable sponsorship.  Click for report


"Uptake of EVs accelerates in all road segments as cost parity of EVs is reached by the early to mid-2020s," according to the McKinsey & Co. "Global Energy Perspective 2019: Reference Case." The report includes a graph that shows the timing of cost parity of EVs with traditionally fueled vehicles in the EU. According to the report, total cost of ownership parity timing in China and the U.S. is similar to that of the EU, with China slightly earlier and the U.S. slightly later. The report predicts EV costs will decrease rapidly, attributed largely to lower battery costs. Click for report

5 Trends That Will Disrupt US Logistics Companies  

As logistics goes digital, changes are coming to industry structure, operations and profits. In the first of a series, Aisha Chottani, Greg Hastings, John Murnane and Florian Neuhaus, of McKinsey & Co., examine the impact of autonomous trucks. “What is happening is fairly well understood, if initially underestimated,” the authors write. “Digitization and other technological advances are exposing the vulnerabilities in every industry, particularly retail. And now, logistics companies are starting to feel the heat. Our new research has turned up five trends that offer startling indicators of impending change for the trucking, rail, warehousing, and logistics companies that move America’s merchandise.” The five trends are: Autonomous trucks E-commerce Automation Asset sharing Data analytics Click for article


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